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On the front line in east and south Ukraine, reports say the situation is increasingly desperate, with Russia outfiring Ukraine at a rate of three to one. Senior Ukrainian military officials, talking to Politico, said that Russia could break through wherever it focuses its anticipated summer offensive. AdvertisementThe role of the WestUkraine is on a "starvation diet" for aid, George Barros, an expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI. Anadolu/Getty ImagesAnalysts also say that weaknesses in Russia's military are limiting the Kremlin's ability to take advantage of the situation. "For Ukraine to suffer total defeat, we'd need to see a major collapse in Ukrainian lines and morale," he said.
Persons: , Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, Dmytro Kuleba, Bryden Spurling, George Barros, BI's Sinéad Baker, Barros, ATACMS, Klaus, Dietmar Gabbert, we've, Justin Bronk, Ukraine —, Politico —, Mykola Bielieskov, Spurling, George Beebe, Beebe, Ukraine it's, ferociously Organizations: Service, Republicans, Business, Patriots, Politico, Russia outfiring, Ukrainian, RAND Corporation, AP, US State Department, Institute for, Leopard, Getty, London's Royal United Services Institute, Ukraine, National Institute for Strategic Studies, Fleet, Anadolu Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia, Russia outfiring Ukraine, Iran, North Korea, West Ukraine, Avdiivka, Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian, NATO, Kyiv, Avdiivkva, Dnipro
Victory in the Ukraine war may come down to a simple question: which side has the initiative? If Russia can retain the initiative, it can launch constant offensives with its larger forces that will drive Ukrainian defenders to the breaking point. For Ukraine, gaining the initiative has become existential: it has to keep Russia off balance, or its forces will be worn down responding to Russian offensives. Ukraine simply cannot afford to go on the defensive and expect this will stop Russia, Barros said. To seize the initiative, Ukraine needs to know that it will receive a steady and reliable stream of Western aid, rather than sporadic deliveries.
Persons: We've, George Barros, Napoleon, Barros, they're, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Ukraine, U.S, Staff, NATO, British Challenger, Ukrainian, Defense, Foreign Policy, Rutgers Univ, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Europe, Israel, Russian, Nazi Germany, Soviet, Ukrainian, Forbes
Short flight times, small radar signatures, and non-ballistic trajectories make glide bombs particularly difficult to intercept as well. "When the Ukrainian air-defense bandwidth is all tied up, they then move in with the fixed-wing aircraft to conduct these glide-bomb attacks," he said. This includes the 1,100-pound FAB-500, 3,300-pound FAB-1500, and 6,600-pound FAB-3000 bombs — all of which can be modified and turned into glide bombs. "That makes the mission planning for attacks with standoff weapons that can hit fixed targets, like the glide bombs, quite practical," he explained. And it won't be entirely the fault of glide bombs — Kyiv needs all the tools its forces can get right now.
Persons: , George Barros, Scott Peterson, they've, Alexander Ermochenko, Barros, Assad, Ivan Gavrylyuk, Justin Bronk, Su, ALEXANDER NEMENOV, Bronk, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Alina Smutko, Ukraine doesn't Organizations: Service, Business, Institute for, REUTERS, Ukrainian, Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, Handout, Royal United Services Institute, Victory Day, Getty, Archer Artillery, Roman, Getty Images, Patriot, Infantry Brigade, Armed Forces Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Russian, Petropavlivka, Avdiivka, Ukraine's Donetsk, Ukrainian, Kharkiv, AFP, Donetsk
An MIT professor envisioned a defensive strategy in 1994 for Ukraine to survive a Russian attack. AdvertisementIn 1994, an American professor came up with a plan for Ukraine to defend against Russian invasion. Rather than seizing all of eastern Ukraine, Russia currently occupies about 18 percent of Ukrainian territory, mainly in the southeast and along the Black Sea coast. AdvertisementA member of 120th Independent Brigade of the Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine takes part in training exercises on March 16. "The Ukrainian force can cover about 60 percent of the front with no reserves.
Persons: Barry Posen, , Posen's, Posen, Vladimir Putin, Gian Marco Benedetto, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, envelopments, didn't, Ukraine hadn't, George Barros, Barros, Michael Peck Organizations: MIT, Service, Russia —, NATO, Ukraine —, 120th Independent Brigade, Territorial Defense Forces, Russia, Mechanized, Russian, Institute for, Defense, Foreign Policy, Rutgers Univ, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Ukraine, American, Russia, Ukrainian, Russian, Dnipro, Posen, Soviet Union, Soviet, Moscow, America, Britain, Crimea, Donetsk, Nazi Germany, Washington ,, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Forbes
And if it continues or expands, a real possibility as Ukrainian air defenses are under significant stress, it could be "devastating," war experts said. Confirming its retreat from the area, Ukraine said it was saving troops from being fully surrounded by Russian troops. This activity appears to indicate the employment of a combined arms tactic involving having air forces support maneuver elements on the ground. Ukraine's air defenses have largely denied Russia air superiority, preventing its jets and aircraft from conducting significant air campaigns since the beginning of the war. Even "recurring temporary localized and limited Russian air superiority," ISW explained in a recent update, "would likely allow Russian forces to more aggressively pursue operational advances along the frontline."
Persons: , Vladimir Putin's, George Barros, Barros, Vlada, hasn't, ISW, Kostiantyn, Avdiivka, it's, John Kirby, Kirby, It's, Putin Organizations: Service, Bakhmut, The Institute, Washington DC, Institute for, Armored Infantry, National Security, Chemical Plant, Ukraine Locations: Russian, Russia, Avdiivka, Ukrainian, Donetsk, Moscow, Ukraine, Washington, Avdiivka district, Luhansk, Lastochkino, MLRS
Russia is generating 100+ tanks a month, largely replacing its battlefield losses, UK intel said. Nicholas Drummond, a defense analyst, agreed, telling BI that Russia is relying on older models as its ability to produce new ones is limited. AdvertisementBut Drummond is skeptical that Russia can even make battle-ready 100 of the older tanks a month. Ramping up productionRussia has seemingly been increasing its output of new tanks, while still relying on older models. AdvertisementBut another expert said these older tanks can still create a problem for Ukraine.
Persons: , William Alberque, Nicholas Drummond, DIMITAR DILKOFF, Drummond, George Barros, Russia's, Oleksii, It's, Alberque, Rajan Menon, Menon, it's Organizations: intel, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Getty, Institute for, Anadolu Agency, Getty Images, Defense Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, AFP, Dmytrivka, Kyiv region, Getty Images Russia, Ukrainian
Russia may be losing more soldiers in Ukraine now than at any other time in the war, per UK intel. The UK Ministry of Defence put it down to those killed and injured in Russia's attacks on Avdiivka. Russian casualties in November are outpacing those of its March offensive in Bakhmut, Ukraine said. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Russia's military has suffered heavy losses in the region because of its reliance on Soviet-era military tactics, according to military analysts.
Persons: , Mark Cancian, George Barros, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Ukraine's Organizations: intel, UK Ministry of Defence, Service, Russia, Ukrainian, Staff, US Marine Corps, Center, Strategic International Studies, Institute for, AFP, Strategic Group Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Bakhmut, Donetsk, Ukrainian
Russia has faced a slaughter fighting for the eastern city of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces say they've destroyed heaps of armor, equipment, and personnel. War experts say the slaughter around Avdiivka bears similar hallmarks to the months-long battle for Bakhmut, where Moscow's catastrophic tactics badly bloodied its army, even though it eventually captured the city. There, it added, Russian forces are suffering "particularly heavy casualties." George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said Avdiivka presents a similar situation for Ukraine as Bakhmut did.
Persons: , Mark Cancian, They've, Cancian, George Barros, Avdiivka, Barros, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, they've, It's, Bakhmut, Vladimir Putin Organizations: Service, US Marine Corps, Center, Strategic International Studies, Business, Institute for, Kyiv, Special Operations Forces, Ukraine, Russia, White, Avdiivka, Mechanized Brigade, Connect Locations: Russia, Avdiivka, Moscow, Bakhmut, Ukraine, Izium, Donetsk, , Ukrainian, Donetsk region, Russian
AdvertisementUkraine fought tooth and nail for months to defend the eastern city of Bakhmut from a never-ending onslaught of Russian soldiers and Wagner Group mercenaries. The risky decision to stay there came with significant costs, and Moscow eventually captured the city in May. AdvertisementThe Bakhmut fight also greatly contributed to the ultimate downfall of the notorious Wagner Group, Barros and Cancian said. Members of Wagner group sit atop of a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don, on June 24, 2023. AdvertisementAn aerial view of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on April 26, 2023.
Persons: , Bakhmut, George Barros, Mark Cancian, Wagner, Cancian, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Prigozhin, STRINGER, Barros, it's Organizations: Service, Wagner Group, Institute for, Kyiv, ARIS MESSINIS, Getty, US Marine Corps, Center, Strategic International Studies, Barros, Russian, Kremlin, Wagner, AP, Fleet Locations: Bakhmut, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Ukrainian, Donetsk Oblast, AFP, Russian, Rostov, AP Ukraine, Kyiv, Crimean
Russia has likely lost about 200 armored vehicles in the last three weeks, the UK said Saturday. According to the UK, Russia is now likely forcing its troops to advance on foot. According to the UK, Russia may have no other choice. "Over the past three weeks, Russia has likely lost around 200 armored vehicles during its assaults on the Donbas town of Avdiivka," the UK said in its regular defense intelligence assessment of the fighting in Ukraine. That compares to Ukraine losing about 200 vehicles in over four months of fighting in Zaporizhzhia, ISW military analyst George Barros told Insider.
Persons: , George Barros Organizations: Service, UK's Ministry of Defense, Kremlin, Institute for, Ukraine Locations: Russia, Avdiivka, Ukrainian, Donetsk, Donbas, Ukraine, Washington, Russian, Zaporizhzhia
Russia has lost as many vehicles in just three weeks of assaults as Ukraine lost over several months of fighting in the south. In vehicle losses, the Russian assault force has lost in just three weeks what Ukrainian troops lost over several months of intense fighting in the south. "GeoConfirmed characterized the Russian effort near Avdiivka as the costliest Russian effort thus far in the war in Ukraine," ISW wrote. It took Russia roughly three weeks fighting for Avdiivka to do the same. Avdiivka has been largely ruined by constant fighting, but the devastated area may not be entirely pointless to Russian forces, or Russian leadership.
Persons: It's, , ISW, George Barros, Barros, Diego Herrera Carcedo, Avdiivka, Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Putin Organizations: Service, Wednesday Institute, Washington DC, Getty, Reuters, Russia, ISW Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Avdiivka, Donetsk, Washington, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblast, Anadolu, Ukrainian
They have made progress, largely surrounding Ukrainian defenses, but at a high cost of troops and resources. And while conventional Russian forces in the Army have reinforced since the fighting began, that has not decisively improved the situation. A bird's-eye view of the destroyed buildings of the city of Avdiivka on October 26, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine. The map showed Russian forces surrounding Avdiivka on three fronts, threatening to eventually surround a pocket of Ukrainian forces in the area. Although Ukrainian troops have dug deep defenses, they've also taken heavy losses in the fighting.
Persons: , George Barros, Kostya, Russia hasn't, ISW, they've, Avdiivka, Barros Organizations: Service, Russia, Reuters, Institute for, Donetsk Peoples Republic, 1st Army Corps, Army Locations: Ukraine, Avdiivka, Russia, Ukrainian, Donetsk, Russian, Washington ,, Zaporizhzhia, Moscow, Bakhmut
Russian troops continue their offensive in Avdiivka, in Ukraine's east, and surround some Ukrainian troops on three sides. A video shows a Russian flag near Avdiivka planted in a waste pile, but any small gain comes at a high cost. Experts at the The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed the advancements on Wednesday in geolocated footage but noted: "Russian forces largely claimed that Russian forces controlled the Avdiivka waste heap, as did a Ukrainian military observer. Ukrainian Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaly Barabash denied claims that Russian forces control the Avdiivka waste heap and stated that the waste heap is a contested 'gray area.'" Combat footage shared by Ukraine's military on Friday shows what it says is the destruction of Russian tanks and armor in the area.
Persons: , Vitaly Barabash, Yuriy Butusov, Butusov, George Barros, it's Organizations: Service, Twitter, Donetsk that's, The Institute, Administration, AP, White House, Special Operations Forces Locations: Avdiivka, Ukraine's, Russian, Russia, Ukrainian, Donetsk, Ukraine, Moscow, Bakhmut
The first batch of US-provided Abrams tanks have arrived in Ukraine. The heavy tanks are joining the battle just in time for the infamous muddy season, which has bogged down some systems. AdvertisementAdvertisementUkraine's infamous mud season is on the horizon, raising questions about how the country's new Western-made armor, like the heavy US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks, will perform in the coming muddy mess. AdvertisementAdvertisementAn Abrams tank from 1st Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment pulls security during Combined Resolve XIII at the Joint Multinational Readiness Center Hohenfels, Germany, on Feb. 02, 2002. In order to maintain the Abrams' Honeywell AGT1500 engine, Ukraine will need a consistent support and a solid supply chain able to provide sufficient spare parts.
Persons: Abrams, , Robert Greenway, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, YEVHEN TITOV, George Barros, Vladimir Putin's, Barros, they've, It's, Omar Marques, Mark Cancian, They're, Greenway, Douglas R, Bush, it's Organizations: Service, Hudson Institute, Army, 1st Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment, Joint Multinational Readiness Center, US Army, Soviet, Getty, Institute for, ARIS MESSINIS, Nowa, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Marine Corps, Abrams, Honeywell, US Locations: Ukraine, Germany, Russia, AFP, Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Donbas, Southern Ukraine, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Nowa Deba, Poland, Soviet, Soviet Union, Latvia
Ukraine and Russia have used fake tanks and weapons to deter or draw fire. AdvertisementAdvertisementBoth Ukraine and Russia are fielding decoys on the battlefield, hoping to draw fire, waste enemy ammunition, and possibly expose enemy positions, but it's getting tougher. A "decoy arms race" is underway, a war expert told Insider, as technology pushes both sides to make their fakes appear as real as possible to fool the enemy. Decoy Ukrainian radar reflectors made from cut-up oil barrels, too, have drawn Russian fire. Earlier this year, Ukraine reported sightings of Russian inflatable tanks deployed near Zaporizhzhia, but it noted some seemed deflated.
Persons: , George Barros, DJI, SERGEI SUPINSKY, Diego Herrera Carcedo, Barros Organizations: Service, Institute for, Ukraine's 116th Mechanized Brigade, Ukrainian, Army, Drones, Getty, Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, Washington Post, Anadolu Agency, Wall Street Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine's, Kyiv, AFP, Russian, Ukrainian, Zaporizhzhia, Soviet, Klishchiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Kosovo, Serbian
Ukraine's air force shot down 34 Russian drones in an overnight attack, officials said. Ukraine is now using new air defense systems from the United States and Germany. Russia has used the Shahed-136 drones in a series of destructive attacks on Ukrainian cities in the last year. In one attack, Shahed-136 drones struck two energy facilities in Odesa, leaving 1.5 million people in Ukraine without power for several days. But while Iran is increasing its supply of drones like these, Ukraine has increased its air defense capacity to better defend against them.
Persons: , Volodymyr Zelenskyy, George Barros Organizations: Service, Reuters, Ukraine, Institute for Locations: Russia, Ukraine, United States, Germany, Iran, Odesa, Iranian, Washington
Russia expected a swift victory against Ukraine when it first invaded the country last February. Russia has since improved its weapons and defense, setting the stage for a long, deadly war. Russia has also adapted to Ukraine's weapons, setting up air defense systems that can shoot down missiles and drones and tools that can jam the other side's GPS signals. While Russia takes down Ukraine's drones, the country has stockpiled cheap drones of its own from China, the Journal reported. Putin has indicated that he was bracing for a long war in Ukraine as the death toll racks up, Reuters reported.
Persons: Vladimir Putin's, James Hecker, George Barros, Mark Milley, Putin Organizations: Ukraine, Service, CNN, Street Journal, US Air Forces, Institute for, Joint Chiefs, Staff, Reuters, New York Times Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Moscow, West, Europe, China, Ukrainian
Troops appear to have used armored vehicles to get past trenches and "dragon's teeth" defenses. They were reacting to a video showing Marder and Stryker infantry fighting vehicles pushing towards Russian lines. Crucially, he said it showed the vehicles behind Russia's fearsome layers of defenses meant to keep heavy vehicles out. Stryker armored fighting vehicles are versatile eight-wheeled weapons that were sent to Ukraine by the US in January. Marder infantry fighting vehicles, which resemble light tanks and can carry up to six people, were sent to Ukraine by Germany several months later.
Persons: Marder, George Barros, k4mFWGUMAk, K0995dHYQc — George Barros, Barros, Rob Lee, Stryker, Insider's Jake Epstein, Insider's Sinead Baker Organizations: Service, Stryker, Air Assault Brigade, Politico, Russian Locations: Ukraine, Russia's, Wall, Silicon, @georgewbarros, Verbove, Russia, Germany, Robotyne
Russian forces are using desperate tactics to hold back Ukrainian advances, according to a think tank. The Institute for the Study of War said recent posts by Russian military bloggers and servicemen revealed desperate conditions for the Russian military near Bakhmut, which has been at the center of ferocious fighting. The ISW cited a Russian military blogger posting on Telegram, who criticized flawed orders to counterattack and retake the village of Andriivka, near Bakhmut. "The milblogger claimed that the Russian military command was planning 'weak' counterattacks and failed to provide accurate intelligence to Russian assault units. The milblogger observed that Russian forces also lack artillery support, while 'hysterical' counterattacks are depleting Russian resources and reserves," said the report.
Persons: they're, Sophia Ankel, George Barros Organizations: Institute for, Service, Troops, Russian, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainian, UK Ministry of Defense Locations: Ukraine, Bakhmut, Wall, Silicon, US, Russia, Russian, Andriivka, Verbove, Klishchiivka, Donetsk Oblast
What’s Next for Ukraine
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( German Lopez | More About German Lopez | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The types of routs that let Ukraine retake thousands of square miles in the northeast last year are rare. Fighting frequently involves chipping away at an enemy, like Ukraine’s retaking of a small but strategic village in the east yesterday. It was true most famously during the trench warfare of World War I but also in World War II, the Korean War and the U.S. Civil War. Ukraine is fighting one of the world’s strongest militaries. If Ukraine could succeed in forcing Russia to retreat in a significant way, it was always more likely to take years than months.
Persons: , George Barros, “ It’s Organizations: U.S ., Institute for Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Civil, U.S, Russia
Ukraine topped the list of countries in terms of cluster munition victims, a new report said. The Cluster Munition Coalition said cluster bombs killed or injured 900 people in Ukraine in 2022. The Cluster Munition Coalition, a global civil society campaign advocating for the ban of cluster munitions, said Russia's war in Ukraine had pushed the use of the ammunition to global record levels since it began reporting in 2010. The CMC reported an "alarming" rise in civilian deaths related to cluster munition attacks, which accounted for 95% of casualties. The UN said cluster munition poses a potential humanitarian risk because many submunitions are unreliable and fail to explode — leaving active ordinance long after conflicts end.
Persons: Tamar Gabelnick, , George Barros Organizations: CMC, Service, UN, Institute for Locations: Ukraine, Syria, Wall, Silicon, Iraq, Yemen, Russia, Washington
Ukrainian forces are making steady territorial gains in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. In doing so, Kyiv's troops have fought against the formidable Surovikin Line. As they approach Verbove, Kyiv's troops have are pushing against the main part of the so-called "Surovikin Line." The Surovikin Line is a complex system of defensive fortifications and obstacles across Russian-occupied territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. AdvertisementAdvertisementTo even reach the main line, Kyiv's soldiers have had to move through sprawling minefields — which has proven to be a slow and painstaking process.
Persons: Sergey Surovikin, Surovikin's, Valery Gerasimov, Wagner, George Barros, Barros, Rob Lee, Michael Kofman Organizations: Service, Factory, Russian Army, Institute, REUTERS Locations: Robotyne, Verbove, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Orikhiv, Azov, Kherson, Crimea, Ukraine, Kharkiv, Washington, Russia, Tokmak, Ukrainian, Moscow
Experts say Moscow could use its expanded arsenal for bigger drone attacks against Ukraine in the coming months. The Russian drones seen in Ukraine have come in all sorts of shapes and sizes, and with varying missions. We can see greater pressure on Ukrainian air defenses and electronic warfare defenses." Larger drone attacks could also be explained by a shift in how Russia carries out its high-volume strikes. And that could, in turn, up the pressure on Ukraine's air defenses.
Persons: Shaheds, George Barros, , Vladimir Putin's, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Samuel Bendett, Oleksii, Bendett, Barros, It's, ISW Organizations: Service, Ukraine, Institute for, National Police, REUTERS, Research, Russian Federation, Center for Naval, Ukrainian, Kyiv, Getty, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense Drones, Russia Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Wall, Silicon, Ukrainian, Washington, Iran, Russian, Kyiv region, Kyiv, Iranian, Zaporizhzhia
Ukrainian forces have been using controversial US-provided cluster munitions for several weeks. The remains of artillery shells and missiles including cluster munitions are stored on December 18, 2022 in Toretsk, Ukraine. Photo by Pierre Crom/Getty ImagesFootage of Ukraine using cluster munitions on the battlefield has emerged in recent weeks. Russia insists it does not use cluster munitions, despite documented use of cluster munitions by the Russian military in Ukraine in the past. But while cluster munitions are operationally effective, they alone won't prove decisive in Ukraine's counteroffensive or the war.
Persons: It's, Biden, Pierre Crom, George Barros, Barros, GENYA SAVILOV, there's, Serhii Mykhalchuk, Vladimir Putin, DPICMs Organizations: Service, Russia, White House, Pentagon, Institute for, Getty Images, Kyiv, Getty Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Kyiv, Toretsk, Donetsk, Russia, Washington, Avdiivka, AFP, Russians, Donetsk Oblast, Moscow, Russian
The Ukrainian military might need to create its own solutions, a retired army general told the Times. Ukraine uses the US-provided M58 Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC) systems, which Zaluzhny told the Post "are also being destroyed," per the Post. "Ukraine needs a Manhattan Project for mine clearing," Ryan told the Times, referring to the US project to build the world's first atomic bomb during World War 2. Beyond the minefields, the two-month offensive to take back territories claimed by Russia has become a significant challenge for Ukrainian troops dealing with heavily fortified defenses from their opponents. At the same time, Ukrainian troops waited for weapons from the West.
Persons: Valery Zaluzhny, Mick Ryan, Zaluzhny, Ryan, George Barros, Insider's Chris Panella Organizations: Times, Service, The New York Times, Washington Post, Lowy Institute, Russian, Project, Institute for, Ukraine Ministry of Defense Locations: Ukrainian, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Western, Australian, Russia
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